51.5% — 848K NEV / 1,648K total passenger retail (CPCA Mar 2026). NEV penetration crossed half for the third consecutive month after first hitting 50%+ in late 2025. BEV alone = 568K / 1,648K = 34.5% (1 in 3).
Top destinations, Feb 2026 (latest disclosed)
Brazil
45.9k
UK
22.8k
Belgium
20.7k
Italy
17.6k
Thailand
14.4k
Germany
12.9k
CPCA Feb 2026 NEV passenger destination ranking. Brazil sits ~2× the next biggest. March-only split not in the April CPCA PDF — destination breakdowns lag ~6 weeks (next set publishes early May).
Highest-growth importers, Feb 2026
Italy
+1,128%
Germany
+488%
Brazil
+411%
Korea
+271%
UK
+107%
YoY growth, computed from CPCA Feb 2026 vs Feb 2025 (CPCA gave absolute YoY increments: Brazil +37k, Italy +16k, UK +12k, Germany +11k, Korea +9k). Italy explosion: tariff arbitrage + dealer pre-positioning ahead of EU CBAM.
Hover any highlighted country for status detail. BYD operates 8 factories / assembly partnerships (China + Thailand + Hungary + Brazil + Indonesia + Turkey + Uzbekistan + Pakistan CKD); ~80+ countries with active sales. Recent moves: Mexico plant shelved July 2025 (US tariff pressure); Canada cut Chinese-EV tariff 100%→6.1% Jan 2026 with 49K-car quota — BYD scouting 20 dealerships starting Toronto. Blocked: US (passenger cars), Russia, Iran, N. Korea, Syria. Refresh as new market entries are announced.
Source: CPCA (中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席会) March 2026 monthly passenger-car analysis PDF — saved locally. CAAM cross-check: NEV exports 371K (CAAM industry-wide, includes commercial vehicles) vs CPCA 349K (passenger-only). BYD self-reports 120,083 overseas vs CAAM's 116,882 — same definition gap. Destination-country splits not disclosed on Chinese side.
China domestic auto market — March 2026
Monthly passenger-car retail by fuel type — CPCA 月度分析 (Jan 2025 → Mar 2026)
Total passenger retail, Mar
1,648K
−14.4% YoY · −15.0% per CPCA. Q1 cumulative 4,226K, −17.4% YoY. Post-purchase-tax-exemption hangover plus late CNY drag.
NEV retail, Mar
848K
51.5% penetration (+0.3pp YoY). NEV retail itself fell 14.4% YoY in absolute terms — but kept share. The math: ICE retail dropped roughly the same.
BEV retail, Mar
~515K
−12% YoY per CPCA (BEV retail growth note). 60.8% of NEV mix; PHEV 30.8% (~261K), EREV 8.4% (~71K). BEV held up better than PHEV (−24%) and EREV (−6%).
HEV (普混) wholesale, Mar
102K
+17% YoY · +95% MoM. HEV share jumped to 6.2% of total retail in Mar 2026 (vs ~4% steady through 2025) — Toyota-led traditional hybrid is the clearest beneficiary of the NEV-tax-cliff hangover.
Pure ICE retail, Mar
~698K
−18% YoY (= total retail − NEV retail − HEV wholesale). Chinese passenger diesel is <2% of pure ICE — this band is effectively all petrol. 42% of total retail and shrinking faster than NEV.
Monthly retail mix by fuel type — % of total
Pure BEVEREVPHEVHEVPure ICENEV/non-NEV line
The NEV/non-NEV boundary (white line) climbed from 41.5% in Jan 2025 to 51.5% in Mar 2026. Even through the early-2026 absolute-volume contraction (the deep cliff at right is the post-tax-exemption + late-CNY drop), NEV held its share of the smaller pie. The pure-ICE block visibly thins; the BEV block doesn't. The thin grey HEV strip — Toyota's traditional 普混 — held a steady ~4% slice through 2025, then expanded to 6.2% in Mar 2026 as buyers walked away from the now-tax-loaded NEVs. Sub-NEV split (BEV / EREV / PHEV within the red bands) uses CPCA wholesale shares applied to NEV retail.
Absolute monthly retail by fuel type (K units)
TotalNEVBEVPure ICEHEV
Total retail peaked at 2.26M in Dec 2025 (last month before the EV-purchase-tax exemption sunset on 31 Dec 2025), then collapsed to 1.03M in Feb 2026 (CNY trough) and recovered to 1.65M in Mar 2026 — still −14.4% vs Mar 2025. The "EVs in trouble in China" narrative requires noticing that pure ICE dropped −18% YoY in March while NEV dropped −14.4% and BEV only −12%. The HEV line — flat-as-a-rail at 70-90K all year — kicks up to a 17-month high 102K in Mar 2026, the cleanest single-line read of the post-tax-cliff trade-down: buyers who can no longer dodge the 10% purchase tax on a NEV are rotating into Toyota and Honda hybrids rather than paying the same tax on a pure-petrol model.
Source: CPCA monthly 月度分析 全国乘用车市场分析 PDFs, Jan 2025 → Mar 2026 (15 issues, saved locally in sources/). Total retail and NEV retail are CPCA-reported retail (零售). BEV / PHEV / EREV split inside NEV uses CPCA wholesale share (批发结构: 60.8% BEV / 30.8% PHEV / 8.4% EREV in Mar 2026) applied to NEV retail volume — CPCA does not separately publish a retail-side BEV/PHEV/EREV breakdown. HEV (普通混合动力 / 普混) is published by CPCA as wholesale (批发) only, not retail; we use the wholesale series (74→52→102K in Jan-Feb-Mar 2026) as a retail proxy because dealer-inventory swings on a ~80K/month line are small relative to NEV/ICE swings. Pure ICE = total retail − NEV retail − HEV wholesale; Chinese passenger diesel is <2% of pure ICE so the dark band is effectively all petrol. Penetration figures (e.g. NEV 51.5%) and YoY % are CPCA's published retail-side numbers.
Tesla vs BYD — selected markets
March 2026 (Q1 where noted) · who's winning where
Strong Tesla presenceOECDscale 0–12k
TeslaBYD
S. Korea
11.1k · +330%
1.7k · +166×
TESLA 6.7×
France
9.6k · +203%
~1k
TESLA 9.6×
Germany
9.3k · +315%
3.4k · +327%
TESLA 2.7×
UK (Q1/3)
~5k · +20%
5.1k · record
EVEN
Australia
3.5k · −22%
7.2k · +172%
BYD 2.1×
Japan
~2.5k est.
~250 est.
TESLA 10×
UK uses Q1 ÷ 3 monthly avg. Japan: estimates per JADA BEV imports + BYD JP run-rate (no Mar 2026 print yet). Australia: VFACTS Mar 2026 (Tesla 3,485 / BYD 7,217).
BYD dominatesTesla marginal/absentEmerging marketsscale 0–8k
TeslaBYD
Spain
~1.3k
~2k · growing
BYD 1.5×
Turkey (Q1/3)
0.7k
~2k · Togg leads market
BYD 2.8×
Italy
0.7k
~2.5k · CBAM front-load
BYD 3.6×
PH (Q1/3)
0.16k
~2.2k · +446% '25
BYD 14×
Brazil
~0
7.1k · +49%
BYD ONLY
Turkey and PH use Q1 ÷ 3 monthly avg (TR Mar print was anomalously low — BYD pulled supply Jan→Mar). Italy/Spain BYD numbers are estimates from EU-wide BYD growth + national press. India (tariff-locked) and Thailand (BYD-dominant on bookings, no clean monthly retail) are in the cards below — not chartable on monthly scale.
China Mar 2026
TESLA78,889
BYD~150,000 BEV
▲ BYD ~1.9× Tesla (home turf)
CPCABYD's home market — Tesla still the only foreign brand that operates at scale. Tesla 78,889 wholesale Mar; BYD BEV ~150K (of ~340K total NEV). Both an order of magnitude above any other country.
S. Korea Mar 2026
TESLA11,130
BYD1,664
▲ Tesla 6.7× BYD
KAIDAFirst time any importer cleared 11K in a single month. BYD needed 15 months to hit cumulative 10K.
France Mar 2026
TESLA9,569 +203%
BYD~1,000
▲ Tesla 9.6× BYD
Model Y7,023 alone (Reuters). Best European month after Norway. Corporate-fleet channel still favors Tesla.
Germany Mar 2026
TESLA9,295 +315%
BYD3,400 +327%
▲ Tesla 2.7× BYD
privateModel Y 6,841 (86% private buyers). BYD growing off comparable low base. Q1: Tesla 12,829 / BYD 9,120.
UK Q1 2026 ÷ 3
TESLA~5,000 +20% Mar
BYD5,067 Q1 record
⇄ Even — BYD closing
BYD UKQ1 record 15,200 — biggest BYD market in Europe. Tesla still ahead in absolute Mar volume but gap narrowing fast.
Australia Mar 2026
TESLA3,485 −22%
BYD7,217 +172%
▲ BYD 2.1× Tesla
VFACTSSub-AU$40K BYD (Atto 3, Sealion 6) running ahead of supply. Model Y refresh lift not enough to keep pace.
Japan Mar 2026 est.
TESLA~2,500
BYD~250
▲ Tesla 10× BYD
import nicheToyota / Nissan dominate domestic. BYD JP launched Atto 3 Jan 2023, slow uptake. Tesla rides JADA BEV-import rebound. Both small in absolute terms.
Canada Mar 2026 est.
TESLA~2,000 depressed
BYD0 launching '26-'27
⊘ BYD entering soon
tariff cutCanada slashed Chinese-EV tariff 100%→6.1% Jan 2026 with 49K-car quota; BYD scouting 20 dealerships starting Toronto. Tesla CA crushed 2025 (H1 9K vs 26K, −65%) but Mar 2026 ZEV picked up on federal incentive + fuel spike — Tesla won't have CA to itself for long.
Spain Mar 2026
TESLA~1,300
BYD~2,000
▲ BYD 1.5× Tesla
IberianTesla only ~14% of Spanish BEV growth — among weakest European Tesla recoveries. BYD via dealer network alongside MG, Chery.
Italy Mar 2026
TESLA~710
BYD~2,500
▲ BYD 3.6× Tesla
CBAM front-loadItaly's China NEV imports +1,128% YoY Feb '26 — BYD/Chery surge ahead of EU CBAM.
Philippines Q1 2026 ÷ 3
TESLA156
BYD~2,175 +446% '25
▲ BYD 14× Tesla
off-CAMPIBYD distributed via ACMobility — invisible in CAMPI but actual market leader (26,122 in 2025 FY).
Brazil Mar 2026
TESLA≈ 0
BYD~7,100 +49%
▲ BYD only
Dolphin Mini#9 nationally (7,053 units) — highest-ranked Chinese model ever. BYD ~74% of Brazilian BEV market. Tesla absent.
Turkey Mar 2026
TESLA935
BYD833
Togg (local #1)~4,440 Mar
BYD Q16,100 (#2 EV)
Tesla Q12,145 (#5)
▲ BYD 2.8× Tesla (Q1)
Togg leadsQ1 broader picture clearly BYD-led (6.1K vs 2.1K). Mar print misleading — BYD supply pullback (Jan share 34% → Mar 5%) made the month look tied. Togg holds #1 EV slot overall.
India FY2025
Tesla FY2025225 cars
BYD FY2025few hundred
Tata (local #1)64,726 (~37% share)
⊘ Tariff lock
70–110% dutyBoth choked by import tariffs. Context: Tata sold 64.7K EVs FY25 — Tesla's 225 is <0.4% of that. Tesla launching six-seat Model Y L Apr 2026 to test the market.
Thailand Mar 2026
Bangkok bookingsBYD 17,354
vs Toyota15,750
China share of orders~2/3
▲ BYD dominant
Bangkok ShowBYD overtook Toyota for the first time on bookings. Tesla limited Thai presence.
Sources: KBA (Germany), KAIDA (Korea), SMMT/BYD UK Media (UK), AVEM/Reuters (France), UNRAE (Italy), ANFAC (Spain), FCAI (Australia), MIA (Brazil ABVE), Bangkok Motor Show / FTI (Thailand), CAMPI / ACMobility (Philippines), FADA / Bloomberg (India), CPCA (China NEV exports). Q1 2026 global: Tesla 358K vs BYD 310K BEV — Tesla reclaims #1 BEV maker; BYD plummets 25% YoY in domestic China but record overseas (120K Mar).
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Per-country detail · driver pulled from sales table
Used EV signals — March 2026
Where the fuel-shock demand is landing in the secondary market